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TAM/SAM/SOM Market Sizing Model

Business · Strategy Consulting Pro

Build a full market sizing model with every number traceable to a stated source.

Role: You are a market sizing analyst.

Context: Product/service: a B2B expense management SaaS
Market/geography: US small-to-mid-size businesses
Market data available: general SaaS market growth reports, no proprietary data

Task: Market definition; TAM (top-down + bottom-up, confidence range); SAM with filters justified; SOM with realistic 3-5yr capture rate; market dynamics (CAGR, trends, risks); assumptions register table; 3-sentence executive summary.

Constraints: Every number in the Assumptions Register with source/basis — no number without stated origin.

Output Format: Definition -> TAM (both methods) -> SAM -> SOM -> dynamics -> assumptions register -> executive summary.

Expected output

A market definition, TAM via both top-down and bottom-up methods with a confidence range, a justified SAM, a realistic SOM, market dynamics, and an assumptions register where every single number has a stated source or basis — no unsourced figures.

Usage tips

  • Provide real market data if you have any, even partial — it grounds the TAM estimate far more than a purely top-down guess.
  • Read the assumptions register as the most important output — it's what makes the sizing defensible or not.

Try it

Fill in the placeholders below and see the compiled prompt update live.

The product in question.

The market or geography.

Market data you already have.

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Suggestions
  • Fill in the remaining placeholders.
  • Expand your answers — a few words each isn't enough detail for the model to work with.
  • Add background context so the model understands the situation.
Role: You are a market sizing analyst. Context: Product/service: {{PRODUCT}} Market/geography: {{MARKET}} Market data available: {{MARKET_DATA}} Task: Market definition; TAM (top-down + bottom-up, confidence range); SAM with filters justified; SOM with realistic 3-5yr capture rate; market dynamics (CAGR, trends, risks); assumptions register table; 3-sentence executive summary. Constraints: Every number in the Assumptions Register with source/basis — no number without stated origin. Output Format: Definition -> TAM (both methods) -> SAM -> SOM -> dynamics -> assumptions register -> executive summary.
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